Probabilities in the Galaxy
A Distribution Model for habitable Planets
Copyright © Klaus Piontzik

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15.2 - Maximum Distribution of Civilizations

The maximum number of civilizations in the galaxy results from the number of intelligent species. And that's when all the intelligent species would have made it to civilization.

Drake-corrected special basic model
According to theorem 9.7.2, the number of solar-like star systems in the galaxy, with an "Earth 2" in habitable zones inhabited by intelligent species, is 49-442 systems.

Seager-corrected special basic model
According to theorem 11.3.2, the number of solar-like star systems in the galaxy, with an "Earth 2" in habitable zone inhabited by intelligent species, is 77 - 742 systems.

15.2.1 Theorem There could be a maximum of 49 to 742 civilizations on habitable "Earth 2", in solar-like star systems in the galaxy.


From the General Basic Model 8.4.2 the number NieGal of all star systems with habitable, earth-like planets with intelligent species in the galaxy can be derived:

15.2.2 Equation NieGal = A · ∑ (Fx · Fph · Fgae · FLi)
   
  NieGal ≈ A · Fph · Fgae · FLi


Insert the values from the corrected basic model into equation 15.2.2:

NieGal1 = (100-300)·109 · 1:4200 · 1:214 · 1:126
NiieGal1 = 883 – 2,649 intelligent species

NieGal2 = (100-300)·109 · 1:4200 · 1:1.078 · 1: 126
NieGal2 = 175 – 526 intelligent species

The General Approach, equivalent to equation 15.2.2, provides 189 - 2,664 intelligent species in the galaxy.

15.2.3 Theorem There could be a maximum of 175 to 2,664 civilizations on habitable "Earth 2" in the galaxy.

 

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