Probabilities in the Galaxy
A Distribution Model for habitable Planets
Copyright © Klaus Piontzik Claude Bärtels

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11.4 - Corrections for the Basic Model

The special basic model 6.3.3 for habitable "Earths 2", in solar-like systems, with a technological civilization is called:

Nze = A·Fsph·Fgae·FLiz

Insert the new values into equation 6.3.3:

Nze = (100-300)·109 · 1:15,000 · (1:214 – 1:691) · 1:1001

This results in the following correction for theorem 6.4.1:

11.4.1 Theorem There are probably 10 to 94 technological civilizations on an Earth 2, in Sun-like star systems, in our galaxy.


Comparison Transformed Drake-Seager Equation
Comparable here is the transformed Drake-Seager equation 10.3.2 with 32 - 94 technological civilizations. The two windows are approximately congruent and thus there is a good correlation of the Drake-Seager equation with the Seager-corrected Special Basic Model.

Comparison Drake-corrected Special Basic Model
The Drake-corrected Special Basic Model 9.8.1 delivers 6 - 56 "Earths 2" with technological civilizations. Thus the windows overlap and there is a good correlation between the Drake-corrected Special Base Model and the Seager-corrected Special Base Model.

The General Basic Model 8.4.2 for habitable "Earths 2", in the Galaxy, with a technological civilization is:

NzexGal = A · ∑ (FX · Fph · Fgae · FLiz)

NzexGal ≈ A · Fph · Fgae · FLiz

Insert the new values into equation 8.4.2:

NzexGal = (100-300)·109 · 1:4200 · (1:214 – 1:691) · 1:1001

This results in the following correction for theorem 8.4.5:

11.4.2 Theorem There are probably 10 to 94 technological civilizations on an "Earth 2", in solar-like star systems, in our galaxy.

The number of star systems in the galaxy, with Earth-like, habitable planets that could support technological civilizations, is at most likely between 35 and 334.

The corrected values inserted into the General Basic Model (as seen) is hereinafter referred to as the Seager-corrected General Basic Model.

Comparison Drake equation
Comparable here is the Drake equation 9.1.2 with 9 - 109 extraterrestrial technological civilizations and thus lies well in the lower range of the Seager-corrected window.
The corrected Drake equation 9.5.3 provides 11 - 146 extraterrestrial technological civilizations and is thus well within the lower range of the Seager-corrected window.

Comparison of the Drake-corrected General Basic Model
The Drake-corrected General Basic Model 9.8.2 provides 22 - 199 "Earth 2" with technological civilizations. This overlaps the windows and there is a good match between the Drake-corrected General Basic Model and the Seager-corrected General Basic Model.
Thus, the Drake equation and the Seager-corrected general basic model show a good correlation.

 

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