|Related to all
star systems A in our galaxy, the number
NX of a set
of star systems belonging to a certain spectral class is
= A · FX
A = (100 300)·109
= Number of Suns in the Galaxy
FX is the
probability of the occurrence of a set of stars belonging
to a certain spectral class. There are
13 spectral classes (chapter 12.1)
There is the set of sun-like G stars, with a yellow
spectral color and the probability of Fs
= 0,28 = 7:25.
There is the set of red dwarfs, i.e. M stars with a
red-orange spectral color and a probability of FRZ
= 0,7 = 7:10.
The two spectral classes G and M make up 98%
of the total stars in the galaxy.
The spectral types O, B, A, F, K, i.e. the blue,
blue-white, white, white-yellow and orange spectral
colours make up about 1% of the total
The brown dwarfs and the red giants, i.e. the spectral
classes L, T, Y, R, N, S, also make up 1%
of the total stars.
According to equation 12.1.1, the set of civilizations of
a set of stars, each caused by a spectral class, applies.
· Fph ·
= A · Fx
· Fph ·
Equation 12.2.2 gives the total number of
civilizations in the galaxy in sum across all
= ∑ Nzx
= A·∑ (Fx
· Fk ·
Fp = 0,014.4 = 201:14.000 star systems with
Fh = 0,016.6 = 10:603 planets in habitable
= Fp · Fh
Fph = 201:14.000 · 10:603
12.5.1 applies:; Fk =
with 0,001 <
< 0,004.7 and
0,000.927 < Fgae <
The probability Fgae
for the similarity of the Earth is of the same order of
magnitude as the observation probabilitiesFk.with
which all models are equivalent.
= FL · Fi
Then equation 18.104.22.168 can also be written like this:
According to equation 22.214.171.124, the probability of
There are n = 8 components
called for life to become possible.
It applies to
the single probability: fj
This can also cause 8 failures.
For weighting factors, approach 126.96.36.199 applies.: aj
Thus, the chance of life arises FL=
1:(n+1) = 1:9.
According to equation 188.8.131.52, the probability of
There are k = 13 causes listed
that can destroy life on earth globally.
It applies to
the single probability:: fj
Only every 14th planet on which there is life could
produce a conscious species.
For the weighting factors, the approach 184.108.40.206 applies: bj
Thus, the chance of intelligence arises Fi=
1:(n+1) = 1:14.
This results in the number of civilizations, of one
civilization level, in the galaxy:
According to equation 6.2.4, the following probability
can be established for one civilization
civilizations form the levels 6,7
and 8. Therefore the total probability for a
technological civilization is:
Fz = 14.400/7.301 · (1:36+1:49+1:64)
Fz= 405.225/3.218.741 = 1:7,943 ¤ 1:8
This results in the number of technological
civilizations in the galaxy:
Adapted to the model used so far:
Fph, Fk are empirically determined factors that are
expected to increase in the future.
the factors FL
there is enough leeway to capture any set of
prerequisites and therefore try different models.
There are n
components so that life can be made weighted with the aj.
There are k components that can prevent
the intelligence weighted with the bj.
The probability of Fz
can be applied to a level of civilization as well as a
number of stages of civilization. m is
the stage of civilization and
&sum m is a set of civilization
Equations 220.127.116.11 and 18.104.22.168 include all the cosmic,
planetary, and evolutionary influences that a species is
exposed to until it has developed a technological
Equations 22.214.171.124 and 126.96.36.199 build a matrix of
variables into which all impacts, from development to
civilization, can be assessed and estimated.