Probabilities in the Galaxy
A Distribution Model for habitable Planets
Copyright © Klaus Piontzik Claude Bärtels

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12.7 - Corrections for the Earth

The general approach thus provides a total:

1:117 ≥ Fe ≥ 1:39
1:808 ≥ F
gae ≥ 1:269

The Drake-corrected Special Basic Model 9.6.1 provides:

1:156 ≥ Fe ≥ 1: 52
1:1.078 ≥ F
gae ≥ 1:359

The Seager-corrected Special Basic Model 11.2.1 provides:

1:100 ≥ Fe ≥ 1:31
1:691 ≥ F
gae ≥ 1:214

This makes it possible to determine the maximum limits for the probability of a second Earth:

12.7.1 Equation 1:152 ≥ Fe≥ 1:31


This results in the earth's similarity:

12.7.2 Equation 1:1078 ≥ Fgae ≥ 1:214


The 21 to 108 times the number of stars that have been studied with the Kepler telescope by 2013 is still needed to find an "Earth 2".
After the result, it will be another decade or two before a second earth is found. If you take the current speed of discovery as a basis. It would therefore be a pure stroke of luck if a second earth were to be found in the next few years.
A faster discovery of a second Earth is only possible if, in a shorter period of time, even more stars were examined than have been observed to date.

The basic model corrected by equations 12.7.1 and 12.7.2 is referred to below as the corrected special or general basic model.

 

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