Probabilities in the Galaxy
A Distribution Model for habitable Planets
Copyright © Klaus Piontzik Claude Bärtels

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13.3 - Humanoids in sunlike Systems

human Besides the 5 evolutionary strands mentioned above, the sixth possibility would be a completely different structured development, e.g. an evolutionary strand that has formed an exoskeleton like insects. The chance of encountering a humanoid species is therefore 1 to 7, so the probability factor is Fm = 0.1428 = 1:7.

Derived from equation system 6.3.3, the number of humanoid species in the galaxy is:

13.3.1 Equation Nme = A · Fsph · Fgae · FLiz · Fm


Inserting all values (Fgae = 1:214) into equation 13.3.1:

Nme1 = (100-300)·109 · 1:15,000 · 1:214 · 1:1001 · 1:7
Nme1 = 5 – 14 human civilizations

Inserting all values (Fgae = 1:1078) into equation 13.3.1:

Nme2 = (100-300)·109 · 1:15,000 · 1:1078 · 1:1001 · 1:7
Nme2 = 1 – 3 human civilizations

The two results can then be summarized to the following statement::

13.3.2 Theorem There could be between 1 to 14 human-like species, in solar-like star systems, in the galaxy.


The other species would be different in form, in biology, in biochemistry and genetics, and also different in civilisation and social understanding.

At worst case, we could be the only human species in a sun-like system.

The probability of a really humanoid species is:

13.3.3 Definition Fme = Fsph · Fgae · FLiz · Fm


Fme = 1:15,000 · (1:1078-1:214) · 1:1001 · 1:7
Fme = 1:88,258,768,350 – 1:444,593,235,000

Only every 88.258 to 444.593 billionth sun-like system could then accommodate a truly human-like species.

 

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