Probabilities in the Galaxy
A Distribution Model for habitable Planets
Copyright © Klaus Piontzik Claude Bärtels

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15 – Distributions

The values presented below are a summary of the calculations shown so far.

15.1
- Distribution of Raw Materials

Drake-corrected special basic model
The distribution of raw materials on an "Earth 2" in the galaxy can be determined with the corrected values of the Earth.
According to theorem 9.6.3, 6,184 - 55,710 "Earths 2" exist in our galaxy.
According to sentence 9.7.1, the number of solar-like star systems, in the galaxy, with an "Earth 2" in habitable zone carrying life, is 678 - 6,190 systems.
If 55,710 "Earths 2" exist and only 6,190 of them carry life, then 49,520 inanimate, earth-like planets remain, from which inorganic raw materials would have to be obtained. According to sentence 9.7.2, the number of solar-like star systems, in the galaxy, with an "Earth 2" in habitable zone, home to 49-442 intelligent species.
If 6,190 "Earths 2" exist with life and only 442 of them carry intelligence, then there are still 5,748 animate planets similar to Earth from which organic raw materials could be obtained.

Seager-corrected Special Basic Model
The distribution of resources on a "Earth 2" in the galaxy can be determined with the corrected values of the earth.
By Theorem 11.2.3 there are 9,648 - 93,458 "Earths 2" in our galaxy.
By Theorem 11.3.1, the number of Sun-like stellar systems in the galaxy, with a "Earth 2" in a habitable zone that sustains life, is 1,072 - 10,384 systems.
If 93,458 "Earths 2" exist and only 10,384 of them live, then there are still 83,074 inanimate Earth-like planets from which to extract inorganic resources. By Theorem 11.3.2, the number of solar-like star systems in the galaxy, with a "Earth 2" in a habitable zone that is home to intelligent species, is 77-742 systems.
If 10,384 "Earths 2" exist with life and only 742 of them carry intelligence, then there are still 9,642 live, earth-like planets, from which organic resources could be fetched.

Therefore, the overall result of the corrected basic model is:

15.1.1 Theorem There could be between 49,520 to 83,074 inanimate earth-like planets in the galaxy from which inorganic raw materials could be obtained.
   
15.1.2 Theorem Between 5,748 and 9,642 animate earth-like planets could exist in the galaxy from which organic raw materials could be obtained.


According to sentence 2.4.3, the number of solar-like star systems with planets about the size of the earth, in habitable zones, in our galaxy is 2.458 - 7.376 million.
According to sentence 2.5.3, the number of solar-like star systems in our galaxy, with distant earth-like planets in habitable zones, is 0.964 - 2.893 million.
Chapter 14 has shown that there are only a minimal number of civilizations. Thus, there are several million ananimate, earth-sized and earth-like planets from which raw materials could be obtained.

Then there are billions of planetoids, moons and asteroids that would be degradable.
When a species operates interstellar spaceflight, sourcing raw material from uninhabited planets or planetoids or moons should not be a major problem.
Whether it is about chemical elements, metals, ores, minerals, water, gases or even organic material such as wood, you do not need to approach (or conquer) inhabited planets.
There are enough uninhabited planets. And in some places even in higher concentration than on planets. There would be a reduction even more attractive. These include raw materials that would be interesting and accessible to us only in the future, such as helium 3 or methane.
Helium 3 could be extracted from lunar rocks in sufficient quantities. Methane and methane hydrate can be easily removed on Titan. And iridium, as well as the so-called rare earths, are likely to be much richer on some asteroids than on Earth.

15.1.3 Theorem Raw materials are abundant in the galaxy.

 

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