Probabilities in the Galaxy
A Distribution Model for habitable Planets
Copyright © Klaus Piontzik Claude Bärtels

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16.9 - Consequences

A signal from another civilization would have taken a few thousand years according to chapters 16.7 and 16.8 and would also have had to be sent out at the „right" time to reach us today. It would be an incredible stroke of luck to receive such a signal with the SETI project.

16.9.1 Theorem It is unlikely that SETI will receive signals from other civilizations in the coming decades.

And if it were, as I have already said, an extraordinary stroke of luck for which there are only two possibilities:

1) There is a civilization only 50 to 55 light years away.
2) It happens to be a signal that has been on the way for some time and was sent at the right time.

Another consequence results from the distances and/or the resulting periods of time. Communication with other civilizations is almost impossible. There's no point waiting a few centuries or millennia for an answer.

16.9.2 Theorem Communication with other civilizations is almost unlikely due to the long transmission periods.

So SETI can only serve to randomly receive a signal sometime, which can then confirm the existence of another civilization in the galaxy - and not more. Finding a civilization and referencing it within communication range would be an incredible stroke of luck.
According to sentence 6.1.2, the 22nd century will be the time in which humanity will be able to conduct interstellar space travel and see for itself, so it is to be expected that SETI will be discontinued at the latest in the next century, or that other methods of listening will be available until then.

 

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