Copyright © Klaus Piontzik Claude Bärtels

3.2 -

A first estimate
for the probability factor F_{e}
can be developed.CASE 1The probability of encountering an approximately earth-great planet in the habitable zone is F _{g} = 0.368,837
= 1,212:3,286. The probability of finding an approximately earth-like planet is F _{a} = 0.392,3 = 51:130. The
probability for a second earth could be in the same order
of magnitude.The probability of a second earth is therefore set at a maximum of 30 %. The probability factor is therefore F _{e1
}= 0.3 = 3:10. The probability of finding an
"Earth 2" among habitable planets is therefore:F _{gae1} = F_{g}·F_{a}·F_{e1}
F _{gae1} = 1,212:3,286 · 51:130 · 3:10F _{gae1} = 0.043,409 = 1:23That means: Among 23 habitable planets there should be an "Earth 2". So we should have found a second Earth by now. Since this has not yet happened (so far 53 habitable planets are known) the probability F_{e1}
= 0.3 is too high and can therefore be omitted in the
further considerations.CASE 2The probability of finding an approximately earth-like planet in the habitable zone can be formulated as follows: F _{e2} = F_{g}·F_{a} F _{e2} = 1,212:3,286 · 51:130 F _{e2} = 0.144,697 = 1:7The probability of an approximately earth-like planet is 14.46%. The probability for a second earth is therefore chosen at a maximum of 10%. The probability factor is F _{e2}
= 0.1 = 1:10.F _{gae2} = F_{g}·F_{a}·F_{e2}F _{gae2} = 1,212:3,286 · 51:130 · 1:10F _{gae2} = 0.014,469 = 1:69That means: Among 69 habitable planets
an "Earth 2" should be found. Since 53
habitable planets are known, we should therefore be on
the verge of finding a second Earth in the next few
years.CASE 3The number of solar-like systems with planets determined by the Kepler telescope is 1.4357 %. The number of suns, with planets, in habitable zones is 1.658 %. The probability of a second earth is therefore chosen at a minimum of 1 %. The probability factor is F _{e3}
= 0.01 = 1:100.F _{gae3} = F_{g}·F_{a}·F_{e3}
F _{gae3} = 1,212:3,286 · 51:130 · 1:100F _{gae3} = 0.001,446 = 1:684Among 684 habitable planets an
"Earth 2" should be found. |

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