Probabilities in the Galaxy
A Distribution Model for habitable Planets
Copyright © Klaus Piontzik Claude Bärtels

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German Version    


3.5 - Statistics

This results in the following probabilities for the distributions of solar-like star systems with habitable planets:


Symbol Rate Factor Designation
       
Fs 7:25 0.28 G-Stars
Fp 201:14,000 0.014,357 G-Stars with Planets
Fh 10:603 0.000,066 Habitable Zone around G-Star
Fg 1,212:3,286 0.368,837 approximately earth great planets
Fa 51:130 0.392,307 approximately earth-like planets
Fe 1:100 – 1:10 0.01-0.1 earth-like planets
       
Fsph 1:15,000 0.000,066 Habitable Zone around G-Star
Fgae 1:691 – 1:69 0.0014-0.014 Earth similarity


Statistically, about ten "Earths 2" were needed to obtain significant probabilities. This would require the investigation of 69 to 691 times the number of stars that have been recorded by the Kepler satellite so far.

In 2013, 150,000 star systems were investigated with the Kepler telescope. Statistically, this is a data population large enough to obtain significant numbers. It can be assumed that with further investigations with larger populations and extended measuring methods, the determined probabilities (up to Fe) for sun-like systems will change only slightly.

If the data is sufficiently significant, the probability factors are transformed into simple distribution or frequency values, making the probability model a simple distribution model.

Starting from the current speed at which exoplanets are recorded, however, it may take several years or decades before empirically significant figures are available.

The time until the discovery of a second Earth is even a measure of the frequency: the longer it takes to find an "Earth 2", the lower is the probability of Fe for a second Earth.

 

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