Probabilities in the Galaxy
A Distribution Model for habitable Planets
Copyright © Klaus Piontzik Claude Bärtels

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5.2.2 - Differentiation for the Probability of Intelligence

There is still a refinement in the probability of intelligence:

Life is dependent on k planetary conditions.
That they form the set K of intelligence.
Then each element contributes to the overall probability. This part is:

5.2.2.1 Equation


Es ist: 0 < j < k+1


Then applies to the total probability of intelligence:

5.2.2.2 Equation


A differentiation of the individual components is obtained by weighting the individual elements.

5.2.2.3 Equation

Then the probability of intelligence is:

5.2.2.4 Equation

Overall, the probability of intelligence is:

5.2.2.5 Equation


Equation 5.2.2.5 is the most general approach that can be made for any set K of intelligence prerequisites, that can still be weighted in their action by the bj.

In a first approach, it is assumed that all parts have the same effect, so that the weighting factors are all one, equation 5.2.2.2 applies.

5.2.2.6 Approach The weighting factors are set equal to one
b1 = b2 = ... = bj = ... = bk = 1


Here are 13 components called intelligence allow.
It applies to the single probability: fj = 1:182

Therefore, 13 failures can occur.
hus, the chance of intelligence arises 1 zu 14. That corresponds to a share of 7,14 %.
he probability factor for intelligence is thus Fi = 0,0714 = 1:14.

This approach is used in all following considerations as the basis of the calculations.

 

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