Probabilities in the Galaxy
A Distribution Model for habitable Planets
Copyright © Klaus Piontzik Claude Bärtels

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5.3 - Intelligent Species on an „Earth 2"

species There are 13 causes listed that can destroy life on earth globally. The chance that a species will develop and survive and develop is therefore 1 in 14.
Only every 14th planet that has life could produce a species capable of consciousness. This corresponds to a share of 7.142 %. The probability factor is then F
i = 0.071,428 = 1:14.

If one looks at the situation rather conservatively, then only planets come into question, which resemble an "earth 2".

From the further development of equation 4.2.1 for habitable earths with life, the number of living "earths 2" with an intelligent species is as follows:

5.3.1 Equation Nie = NLe · Fi
N
ie = A · Fsph · Fgae · FL · Fi
N
ie = A · Fs · Fp · Fh · Fg · Fa · Fe · FL · Fi


Since two values exist for Fe and Fgae a minimum-maximum statement can be generated here as well:


case 1 (Fe = 0.1)

Inserting all values (F
e = 0.1) into equation 5.3.1:

Nie1 = (100-300)·109 · 1:15,000 · 1:69 · 1:9 · 1:14
Nie1 = 767 – 2,300 „Earth 2“ with intelligent Life


case 2 (Fe = 0.01)

Inserting all values (F
e = 0.01) into equation 5.3.1:

Nie2 = (100-300)·109 · 1:15,000 · 1:691 · 1:9 · 1:14
Nie2 = 77 – 230 „Earth 2“ with intelligent Life

The two results can then be summarized to the following statement:

5.3.2 Satz The number of solar-like star systems, with an "Earth 2" in habitable zones, which have produced an intelligent species, is probably between 77 and 2,300.

The probability for a habitable "Earth 2", with intelligent life, in solar-like star systems, in our galaxy, then arises:

5.3.3 Definition Fie = Fs · Fp · Fh · Fg · Fa · Fe · FL · Fi
F
ie = Fsph · Fgae · FL · Fi


Fie = Fsph·Fgae·FL·Fi
Fie= 1:15,000 · (1:69 – 1:691) · 1:9 · 1:14
Fie= 1:130,410,000 – 1:1,305,990,00


Only every 130.41 millionth to 1.305 billionth star system has an "Earth 2", with intelligent life.

 

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