Probabilities in the Galaxy
A Distribution Model for habitable Planets
Copyright © Klaus Piontzik

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6.3 - Special Basic Model

The equation 5.3.1 for "Earth 2" with an intelligent species can be extended to:

6.3.1 Equation Nze = Nie Fz
Nze = A Fsph Fgae FL Fi Fz

Equation 6.3.1 shows the number of intelligent species that may have technology and have reached a development level greater than 2. Equation 6.3.1 can be simplified a little further. To do this, you have to look at the probability factors. The following are known:

Fsph = FsFpFh = 7:25 201:14,000 10:603
= 1:15,000 habitable zone
   
Fgae = FgFaFe = 1,212:3,286 51:130 (1:100 – 1:10)
= 1:702 bis 1:70 earth similarity

If you only look at "Earth 2", you can still establish a probability for a civilization:

6.3.2 Definition FLiz = FL Fi Fz

Fz must be adapted to the quantities of civilization to be considered, which will become apparent in the following sections.

Equation 6.3.1 can then also be represented in this way:

6.3.3 Equation Nze = A Fsph Fgae FLiz
   
 
Fsph = Fs Fp Fh Habitable Zone
Fgae = Fg Fa Fe Earth Similarity
FLiz = FL Fi Fz Civilization
   


The system of equations 6.3.3 contains all planetary and biological factors that can influence the development of a civilization, by an intelligent species, on an "Earth 2", in a sun-like system, in the galaxy.

Since we know one civilization, ours, Equation 6.3.3 can still be modified somewhat.. It applies:

6.3.4 Equation Nze = A Fsph Fgae FLiz &ge 1

 

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