Probabilities in the Galaxy
A Distribution Model for habitable Planets
Copyright © Klaus Piontzik Claude Bärtels

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German Version    


6.3 - Special Basic Model

The equation 5.3.1 for "Earth 2" with an intelligent species can be extended to:

6.3.1 Equation Nze = Nie · Fz
Nze = A · Fsph · Fgae · FL · Fi · Fz

Equation 6.3.1 shows the number of intelligent species that may have technology and have reached a development level greater than 2. Equation 6.3.1 can be simplified a little further. To do this, you have to look at the probability factors. The following are known:

Fsph = Fs·Fp·Fh = 7:25 · 201:14,000 · 10:603
= 1:15,000 habitable zone
   
Fgae = Fg·Fa·Fe = 1,212:3,286 · 51:130 · (1:100 – 1:10)
= 1:702 bis 1:70 earth similarity

If you only look at "Earth 2", you can still establish a probability for a civilization:

6.3.2 Definition FLiz = FL · Fi · Fz

Fz must be adapted to the quantities of civilization to be considered, which will become apparent in the following sections.

Equation 6.3.1 can then also be represented in this way:

6.3.3 Equation Nze = A · Fsph · Fgae · FLiz
   
 
Fsph = Fs· Fp· Fh Habitable Zone
Fgae = Fg· Fa· Fe Earth Similarity
FLiz = FL· Fi· Fz Civilization
   


The system of equations 6.3.3 contains all planetary and biological factors that can influence the development of a civilization, by an intelligent species, on an "Earth 2", in a sun-like system, in the galaxy.

Since we know one civilization, ours, Equation 6.3.3 can still be modified somewhat.. It applies:

6.3.4 Equation Nze = A · Fsph · Fgae · FLiz ≥ 1

 

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