## Probabilities in the Galaxy A Distribution Model for habitable Planets Copyright © Klaus Piontzik

 German Version

## 6.4 - Technological Civilizations

 Only three of the eight levels of development represent higher technological civilizations, namely levels 6, 7, 8. This corresponds to a probability of: Fz = 14,400/7,301 · (1:36+1:49+1:64) Fz= 405,225/3,218,741 = 1:7,943
 FLiz = FL·Fi·Fz = 1:9 · 1:14 · 405,225/3,218,741 = 0.000,999,171 = 1 : 1001 technological civilization

Since two values exist for Fe and Fgae a minimum-maximum statement can also be generated here.

Inserting all values (F
e = 0.1) into equation 6.3.3:

N
ze1 = (100-300)·109 · 1:15,000 · 1:69 · 1:1001
N
ze1 = 97 – 290 „Earth 2“ with a technological civilisztion

Inserting all values (F
e = 0.01) into equation 6.3.3:

N
ze2 = (100-300)·109 · 1:15,000 · 1:691 · 1:1001
N
ze2 = 10 – 29 „Earth 2“ with a technological civilisztion

The two results can then be summarized to the following statement:

 6.4.1 Theorem There are probably 10 to 290 technological civilizations on an "Earth 2" in a solar-like star system, in our galaxy.

The probability of a habitable "Earth 2", with a technological civilization, in solar-like star systems, in our galaxy, is then:

 6.4.2 Definition Fze = Fsph · Fgae · FLiz

Fze= Fsph·Fgae·FLiz
Fze = 1:15,000 · (1:69-1:691) · 1:1001
Fze = 1:1,036,035,000 - 10,375,365,000

Only every 1.036 to 10.375 billionth star system produces an "Earth 2", with a technological civilization.

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