Probabilities in the Galaxy
A Distribution Model for habitable Planets
Copyright © Klaus Piontzik

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6.4 - Technological Civilizations

Machine Only three of the eight levels of development represent higher technological civilizations, namely levels 6, 7, 8.

This corresponds to a probability of:

F
z = 14,400/7,301 (1:36+1:49+1:64)
F
z= 405,225/3,218,741 = 1:7,943
   
FLiz = FLFiFz = 1:9 1:14 405,225/3,218,741
= 0.000,999,171
= 1 : 1001 technological civilization

Since two values exist for Fe and Fgae a minimum-maximum statement can also be generated here.

Inserting all values (F
e = 0.1) into equation 6.3.3:

N
ze1 = (100-300)109 1:15,000 1:69 1:1001
N
ze1 = 97 – 290 „Earth 2“ with a technological civilisztion

Inserting all values (F
e = 0.01) into equation 6.3.3:

N
ze2 = (100-300)109 1:15,000 1:691 1:1001
N
ze2 = 10 – 29 „Earth 2“ with a technological civilisztion

The two results can then be summarized to the following statement:

6.4.1 Theorem There are probably 10 to 290 technological civilizations on an "Earth 2" in a solar-like star system, in our galaxy.

The probability of a habitable "Earth 2", with a technological civilization, in solar-like star systems, in our galaxy, is then:

6.4.2 Definition Fze = Fsph Fgae FLiz


Fze= FsphFgaeFLiz
Fze = 1:15,000 (1:69-1:691) 1:1001
Fze = 1:1,036,035,000 - 10,375,365,000

Only every 1.036 to 10.375 billionth star system produces an "Earth 2", with a technological civilization.

 

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