Probabilities in the Galaxy A Distribution Model for habitable Planets Copyright © Klaus Piontzik

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6.6 - Space traveling Civilizations

The prerequisite for a space-moving civilization is:

 6.6.1 Axiom There is a physics and resulting technology that allows interstellar journeys in short periods of time.

From a developmental point of view, only the highest level of civilization 8 has interstellar space travel. Therefore, the probability of finding such a species is:

Fz = 14,400:7,301 : 64.= 225:7,301 = 1:32.448

FLiz = FL · Fi · Fz = 1:9 · 1:14 · 225:7,301 = 1:4089 space traveling civilizations

Inserting all values (Fe = 0.1) into equation 6.3.3:

Nze1 = (100-300)·109 · 1:15,000 · 1:69 · 1:4089
Nze1 = 24 – 71 space traveling civilizations

Inserting all values (Fe = 0.01) into equation 6.3.3:

Nze2 = (100-300)·109 · 1:15,000 · 1:691 · 1: 4089
Nze2 = 3 – 7 space traveling civilizations

The two results can then be summarized to the following statement:

 6.6.2 Theorem There are probably 3 to 71 technological civilizations, on a "Earth 2", in a Sun-like star system, in our galaxy, which operate interstellar space travel.

The probability of a habitable "Earth 2" in solar-like star systems, in our galaxy, with a technological civilization operating interstellar space travel, is then by definition 6.4.2:

Fze = Fsph · Fgae · FLiz
Fze = 1:15,000 · (1:69-1:691) · 1:4089
Fze = 1:4,232,115,000 – 1:42,382,485,000

Only every 4.232 to 42.382 billionth star system has an "Earth 2" with a space traveling civilization.

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