Probabilities in the Galaxy
A Distribution Model for habitable Planets
Copyright © Klaus Piontzik Claude Bärtels

 German Version    
German Version    


6.7
- Probabilities

If you look again at the factors Fsph, Fgae und FLiz you can add the following:

Fsph = 1:15,000 is the probability for a planet in the habitable zone of a sun-like star..

For Fgae = 1:691 – 1:69 only one range could be determined so far.

If up to 10 "Earths 2" will be found within the next 20 - 100 years, it will be possible to specify both parameters (Fsph, Fgae) with sufficient accuracy, i.e. statistically significant figures will then be available.

Values determined so far for FLiz:
  FLiz = 1:1001 technological civilization
FLiz = 1:1326 comparable civilization
FLiz = 1:4089 space traveling civilization

The accuracy of these values will only be sufficiently clarified when mankind itself begins to operate interstellar spaceflight, i.e. according to theorem 6.1.2 in 100 to 200 years, and can verify the distribution of life or intelligence and civilization in the galaxy itself.
As a result, all probability factors for the distribution of planets, life, intelligence and civilization will be sufficiently accurate within the next two centuries.

Dhe system of equations 6.3.3 contains all planetary and biological factors that can influence the development of a civilization, by an intelligent species, on an "Earth 2", in a solar-like star system, in the galaxy.
Subsequently, we will refer to the system of equations for solar-like star systems derived up to this point as the "
Special Basic Model".

If future further investigations lead to an ever better significance of the previous probability values, the probabilities of probability factors will change into simple distribution or frequency values.
Thus, the basic model is also transformed into a simple, empirical distribution model with regard to habitable planets, life, intelligence and civilizations in our galaxy.

 

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