Probabilities in the Galaxy
A Distribution Model for habitable Planets
Copyright © Klaus Piontzik Claude Bärtels

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7.1.2 - Differentiation for Development Barriers

There is still a refinement in the probability of Development Barriers.

Civilization dependent on q conditions.
That they form the set Q of Development Barriers.
Then each element contributes to the overall probability. This part is:

7.1.2.1 Equation


Es ist: 0 < j < q + 1


Then applies to the total probability of Development Barriers:

7.1.2.2 Equation


A differentiation of the individual components is obtained by weighting the individual elements.

7.1.2.3 Equation


Then the probability of Development Barriers is:


7.1.2.4 Equation


Overall, the probability of Development Barriers is:

7.1.2.5 Equation


Equation 7.1.2.5 is the most general approach that can be made for any set Q of Civilization prerequisites, that can still be weighted in their action by the cj.

In a first approach, it is assumed that all parts have the same effect, so that the weighting factors are all one, equation 7.1.2.2 applies.

7.1.2.6 Approach The weighting factors are set equal to one
c1 = c2 = ... = cj = ... = cn = 1

Here are 5 components called Development Barriers allow.
It applies to the single probability: fj = 1:30

Therefore, 5 failures can occur.
Thus, the chance of
Development Barriers arises 1 zu 6. That corresponds to a share of 16,66 %.
he probability factor for
Development Barriers is thus Fi = 0,1666... = 1:6.

This approach is used in all following considerations as the basis of the calculations.

 

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