Probabilities in the Galaxy
A Distribution Model for habitable Planets
Copyright © Klaus Piontzik Claude Bärtels

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7.3 - Old Civilizations in the Galaxy

The following equation results from the basic model 6.3.3:

7.3.1 Equation Nue = Nze · Fu
Nue = A · Fsph · Fgae · FLiz · Fu

Equation 7.3.1 contains all planetary, biological and civilizing factors that can influence the development of a civilization, by an intelligent species, on an "Earth 2", in a solar-like star system, in our galaxy.

It can be assumed that ancient civilizations emerge from the multitude of space traveling civilizations. Therefore Fz = 225:7,301 and FLiz = 1:4089.

Inserting all values (Fe = 0.1) into equation 7.3.1:

Nue1 = (100-300)·109 · 1:15,000 · 1:69 · 1:4089 · 1:6
Nue1 = 4 – 12 „Earth 2“ with old civilizations

Inserting all values (Fe = 0.01) into equation 7.3.1:

Nue2 = (100-300)·109 · 1:15,000 · 1:691 · 1:4089 · 1:6
Nue2 = 1 – 2 „Earth 2“ with old civilizations

The two results can then be summarized to the following statement:

7.3.2 Theorem There could be between 1 to 12 old technological civilizations, on an "Earth 2", in a solar-like star system, in our galaxy.

The probability of a habitable "Earth 2" with an old technological civilization in solar-like star systems, in our galaxy, is then:

7.3.3 Definition Fue = Fsph · Fgae · FLiz · Fu

Fue = Fsph·Fgae·FLiz· Fu
Fue = 1:15,000 · (1:69-1:691) · 1:4089 · 1:6
F
ue = 1:25,392,690,000 – 1:254,294,910,000

Only every 25.392 - 254.294 billionth star system has an "Earth 2" with an old technological civilization.

 

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