Probabilities in the Galaxy
A Distribution Model for habitable Planets
Copyright © Klaus Piontzik Claude Bärtels

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7.3.4 - Total Number of old Civilizations

Derived from equations 7.3.1 and 12.2.2, the total number of old civilizations in the galaxy is the sum of all spectral classes:

  NOldZivGal = ∑ Nzx = A·∑ (Fx · Fph · Fk · FLiz· Fu) Equation

Then the equation can be written like this: Equation

This results in the number of old civilizations in the galaxy: Equation

According to equation 6.2.4, the following probability for a civilization level can be established :


The total probability results from the sum of the individual probabilities when a set of civilization levels is considered.


Old civilizations emerge only from level 8. Hence the probability of an old civilization:

z = 14.400/7.301 · 1:64
z= 0,030817 ¤ 1:32
z= 1:32

So for the number of old civilizations in the galaxy: Equation

Adapted to the model used so far:



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