Probabilities in the Galaxy
A Distribution Model for habitable Planets
Copyright © Klaus Piontzik Claude Bärtels

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German Version    


7.3.4 - Total Number of old Civilizations

Derived from equations 7.3.1 and 12.2.2, the total number of old civilizations in the galaxy is the sum of all spectral classes:

  NOldZivGal = ∑ Nzx = A·∑ (Fx · Fph · Fk · FLiz· Fu)
   
7.3.4.1 Equation


Then the equation can be written like this:

7.3.4.2 Equation


This results in the number of old civilizations in the galaxy:

7.3.4.3 Equation


According to equation 6.2.4, the following probability for a civilization level can be established :

 


The total probability results from the sum of the individual probabilities when a set of civilization levels is considered.

 


Old civilizations emerge only from level 8. Hence the probability of an old civilization:


F
z = 14.400/7.301 · 1:64
F
z= 0,030817 ¤ 1:32
F
z= 1:32


So for the number of old civilizations in the galaxy:

7.3.4.4 Equation


Adapted to the model used so far:

 


 

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