Probabilities in the Galaxy
A Distribution Model for habitable Planets
Copyright © Klaus Piontzik Claude Bärtels

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9.2 - Critics on the Drake-Equation

The main criticism of the Drake equation is ignited by the (previous) range of probability factors. Values can be used as desired for all factors. So that one can come to the conclusion that we are the only civilization in the galaxy or that we are just one civilization among many.
In the past, the Drake equation was therefore often referred as a collection of unknowns that remain unknown simply because they could not be determined. And therefore would leave far too much room for speculation and interpretation. [5] The Drake equation is therefore sometimes referred as a pseudoformula.
However, there is a misunderstanding here. The Drake equation is not a formula for calculating the number of civilizations in the galaxy. It is a probability consideration that serves to estimate the order of magnitude of the number of civilizations.

One must bear in mind here that most of the criticism comes from times when the claim that aliens existed was almost considered sacrilege or heresy.
However, as the data of the Kepler telescope show, the current information is already sufficient to approximately determine the factor fp in the Drake equation.
According to sentence 6.1.2, it can be assumed that in the next 200 years the remaining factors can also be sufficiently determined if humanity itself controls interstellar space travel.

Chapters 1 to 8 have so far shown that a differentiated approach is possible. In the next sections it will be shown that the Drake equation is compatible to the General Basic Model. The objections to the Drake equation can therefore only be seen as temporary challenges which will prove to be void in a (albeit distant) future.

 

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