Probabilities in the Galaxy
A Distribution Model for habitable Planets
Copyright © Klaus Piontzik Claude Bärtels

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9.8 - Corrections for the Basic Model

The special basic model 6.3.3 for habitable "Earths 2", in solar-like systems, with a technological civilization is called:

Nze = A· Fsph · Fgae · FLiz

Insert the new values into equation 6.3.3:

Nze = (100-300)·109 · 1:15,000 · (1:359 – 1:1078) · 1:1001

This results in the following correction for theorem 6.4.1:

9.8.1 Theorem There are probably 7 to 56 technological civilizations, on an "Earth 2", in solar-like star systems, in our galaxy.


The General Basic Model 8.4.2 for habitable "Earths 2" in the galaxy, with a technological civilization, is:

NzexGal = ∑ Nzex = A · ∑ (FX · ·Fph· · Fgae · ·FLiz)

NzexGal ≈ A · Fph · Fgae · FLiz

Insert the new values into equation 8.4.2:

NzexGal = (100-300)·109 · 1:4200 · (1:359 – 1:1078) · 1:1001

This results in the following correction for theorem 8.4.5:

9.8.2 Theorem The number of star systems in the galaxy, with earth-like, habitable planets that could carry technological civilizations, is most likely between 22 and 199.


Comparison Drake equation
Comparable here is the Drake equation 9.1.2 with 9 - 109 extraterrestrial technological civilizations. The Drake window coincides with the lower part of the window from the General Basic Model.
The corrected Drake equation 9.5.3 provides 11 - 146 alien technological civilizations. The corrected Drake window is identical to the lower part of the window from the General Basic Model.
Thus there is a good agreement between the Drake equation and the general basic model.

9.8.3 Theorem The General Basic Model and the Drake equation represent two mutually equivalent approaches.


Since the number of star systems from the basic model is considerably larger than in the Drake equation, it can be concluded that the upper limit Fe is set too high for the probability of a second Earth.

 

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