Probabilities in the Galaxy
A Distribution Model for habitable Planets
Copyright © Klaus Piontzik Claude Bärtels

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7 – Survival of a Civilization

7.1 - Development Barriers of a Civilization

In order for a civilization to develop so successfully that it reaches level 6 or higher, it must overcome at least four more difficulties. These are:

1 supply shortage
In the history of mankind, some cultures such as the Maya or Anastasi have been destroyed by famine, persistent drought and/or climate change.
Overexploitation[1], pollution[2] and overpopulation[3] are additional risk potentials.
   
2 epidemics, pandemic
Historically, the plague and the "Spanish flu" were the great epidemics that have afflicted mankind so far. Today, for example, it is the Ebola virus on the African continent. Currently (Jan. 2016) an outbreak of the Zika virus (family of Flaviviridae) as a potential danger ("Zika Fever") is controversially discussed.
All these pandemics have the potential to eradicate humanity. This is what happened to the Indians of North and South America when the Europeans appeared on their territory. [4]
   
3 wars
Many states and cultures have already fallen as a result of wars. Another potential risk of destruction is the fact that the major industrial nations have had sufficient destructive power to wipe out humanity several times over the past 60 years. [5]
   
4 cataclysms
Regional disasters such as volcanism as lahar and pyroclastic flows or earthquakes caused by plate tectonics, as well as tsunamis, forest fires and hurricanes can develop into considerable difficulties in human development. [6]
   
5 internal conflicts
Failure of the infrastructure due to hacker attacks or sabotage as well as social unrest and revolutions or civil war can lead to considerable difficulties in human development. [7]


Shortages of supplies, pandemics, wars, disasters and internal conflicts are partly caused by cultural factors and partly by environmental influences.
Every advanced civilization will have to overcome these obstacles in its development. There are five chances of failure. According to this, there is a chance for a civilization to survive from F
u = 1:6

 

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