Probabilities in the Galaxy
A Distribution Model for habitable Planets
Copyright © Klaus Piontzik Claude Bärtels

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6.5 - Comparable technological Civilizations

Skyline Today's civilization has been at the 6th level for about 300 years, and we are standing with the moon landing in 1969, and the construction of the international space station ISS since 1998, at the beginning of the seventh stage.
Only two of the eight stages of development therefore represent comparable technological civilizations, namely levels 6 and 7. This corresponds to a probability of:

Fz = 14,400:7,301 · (1:36+1:49) = 34,000:357,749 = 1:10.522

FLiz = FL · Fi · Fz = 1:9 · 1:14 · 34,000:357,749 = 1:1326 comparable technological civilizations

Inserting all values (Fe = 0.1) iinto equation 6.3.3:

Nze1 = (100-300)·109 · 1:15,000 · 1:69 · 1:1326
Nze1 = 73 – 219 comparable technological civilizations

Inserting all values (Fe = 0.01) into equation 6.3.3:

Nze2 = (100-300)·109 · 1:15,000 · 1:691 · 1:1326
Nze2 = 8 – 22 comparable technological civilizations

The two results can then be summarized to the following statement:

6.5.1 Theorem There could be between 8 and 219 technological civilizations, on a "Earth 2", in a solar-like stellar system, in our galaxy comparable to ours.


Conclusion:

If the maximum comparable 219 civilizations are distributed evenly throughout the galaxy, thousands of light years lie between them.
A signal from another civilization would therefore have taken a few thousand years and would also have had to be sent at the "right" time to reach us today. It would be an incredible stroke of luck to receive such a signal with the SETI project.
Communication would also not be possible due to the long signal transmission time spans. This topic is dealt with in more detail in the appendix (The SETI Project).

The probability for a habitable "Earth 2", with a technologically comparable civilization, in solar-like star systems, in our galaxy, is then by definition 6.2.5:

Fze = Fsph · Fgae · FLiz
Fze = 1:15,000 · (1:69-1:691) · 1:1326
Fze = 1:1,372,410,000 – 1:13,743,990,000

Only every 1.372 to 13.743 billionth star system has an "Earth 2", with a comparable civilization.

 

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