|
|
| Impressum | Disclaimer | https://www.probabilities-in-the-galaxy.com |
 |
The procedure used in the chapters of the
book is called an axiomatic procedure in mathematics.
Hypotheses are drawn from the analysis of empirical data
of the Kepler satellite, which are called approaches and
axioms. The statements derived from this are formulated
as sentences to which certain probabilities are assigned.
All axioms and sentences lead to an overall
representation of the situation, which can then be used
as a working hypothesis. This is a working hypothesis
regarding the distribution of habitable, earth-like
planets, as well as life, intelligence and civilizations
in our galaxy. It is rather improbable that we are alone in the universe. It is more probable that we are not alone. The book is based on the mathematical part of the "Alien Hypothesis". The work "Probabilities in the Galaxy" forms a closed, uniform working hypothesis that describes the distribution of habitable planets, life, intelligence and civilization in our galaxy. Furthermore, the Drake-equation and the Seager- equation have been integrated into the model. |
 |
||
| German Version |
| In order to make
the model of the distribution of life and intelligence in
the galaxy accessible to a wider public, i have decided
to put the mathematical part of the model largely on the
Internet. As much of the model is published as necessary
to implement the model. However, the references in the
text can only be looked up in the book. A new version of the book is under construction. It will be published until April 2020 Individual parts in the following Register are marked as "supplement". These parts are included in the new version. |
Probabilities
in the Galaxy
A
Distribution Model for habitable Planets
Register
| Seite | ||
| Part 1 - The Basic Model | ||
| Introduction | 8 | |
| 1 | Planets in the Galaxy | 9 |
| 1.1 | Detection of Planets | 9 |
| 1.2 | Data of the Kepler Satellite | 10 |
| 1.3 | Evaluation of Kepler Data | 11 |
| 1.4 | Sunlike Starsystems | 11 |
| 1.5 | G-Stars with Planets | 12 |
| 1.6 | G-Stars with habitable Planets | 12 |
| 1.7 | Probabilities for habitable Planets | 14 |
| 1.8 | Catagories of Planets | supplemen |
| 1.9 | Summary | 14 |
| 2 | Evaluation of catalogue data | 15 |
| 2.1 | Newer Catalog Data for Exoplanets | 15 |
| 2.2 | Subearth | 17 |
| 2.3 | Superearth | 18 |
| 2.4 | Approximately earth-great Planets | 20 |
| 2.5 | Comment on press releases | supplemen |
| 2.6 | Approximately earth-like Planets | 21 |
| 2.7 | Summary | 23 |
| 2.8 | Conventions and Notation | 24 |
| 3 | "Earth 2.0" | 25 |
| 3.1 | How many "Earth 2" are possible? | 25 |
| 3.2 | Case Distinctions | 25 |
| 3.3 | Consequences | 27 |
| 3.4 | „How many stars are there?“ | 28 |
| 3.5 | Statistics | 30 |
| 4 | Animated Planets in our Galaxy | 31 |
| 4.1 | Planetary Assumptions for Life | 31 |
| 4.2 | The Life-Factor | supplemen |
| 4.3 | Differentiation for the Probability of Life | supplement |
| 4.4 | "Earth 2" with Life | 36 |
| 5 | Intelligent Species in our Galaxy | 38 |
| 5.1 | Global Catastrophies | 38 |
| 5.2 | Planetary Dangers of Development | 40 |
| 5.3 | The consciousness factor | supplemen |
| 5.4 | Differentiation for the Probability of Intelligence | supplement |
| 5.5 | Intelligent Species on an "Earth 2" | 44 |
| 6 | Civilizations in the Galaxy | 46 |
| 6.1 | Developmental Levels of a Civilization | 46 |
| 6.2 | Distribution of Civilization Levels | 56 |
| 6.3 | Special Basic Model | 60 |
| 6.4 | Technological Civilisations | 61 |
| 6.5 | Comparable technological Civilizations | 62 |
| 6.6 | Space traveling Civilizations | 64 |
| 6.7 | Hypothetically | supplement |
| 6.8 | Maxium considerations | supplement |
| 6.9 | Probabilities | 65 |
| 7 | Survival of a Civilization | 67 |
| 7.1 | Development Barriers of a Civilization | 67 |
| 7.2 | Differentiation for Development Barriers | supplement |
| 7.3 | Age of a Civilization | 68 |
| 7.4 | Old Civilizations in the Galaxy | 68 |
| 7.5 | Temporal Distribution of Civilizations | 70 |
| 7.6 | Visitors | 72 |
| 8 | General Basic Model | 73 |
| 8.1 | Starsystems | 73 |
| 8.2 | Habitable Planets | 73 |
| 8.3 | "Earth 2" | 75 |
| 8.4 | Technological Civilizations | 77 |
| 8.5 | Other Civilizations | 79 |
| 8.6 | Comparison | 80 |
| 8.7 | Galactical habitable Zone | 80 |
| 8.8 | Probability Factors | 82 |
| 8.9 | Symbols of some stars | supplemen |
| Part 2 - Additional Models | ||
| 9 | The Drake-Equation | 83 |
| 9.1 | The classic Drake-Equation | 83 |
| 9.2 | Critics on the Drake-Equation | 85 |
| 9.3 | Carl Sagan | 86 |
| 9.4 | The modified Drake-Equation | 87 |
| 9.5 | Drake-Equation and General Basic Model | 88 |
| 9.6 | Corrected Values for the Earth | 90 |
| 9.7 | Corrections for Life and Intelligence | 92 |
| 9.8 | Corrections for the Basic Model | 92 |
| 9.9 | Other Civilizations | 94 |
| 10 | The Seager-Equation | 95 |
| 10.1 | The Equation from Sara-Seager | 95 |
| 10.2 | The extended Seager-Equation | 96 |
| 10.3 | The transformed Seager-Equation | 98 |
| 11 | Equivalence of Considerations | 100 |
| 11.1 | Equivalence | 100 |
| 11.2 | Corrected Values for the Earth | 101 |
| 11.3 | Corrections for Life and Intelligence | 102 |
| 11.4 | Corrections for the Basic Model | 103 |
| 11.5 | Other Civilizations | 105 |
| 11.6 | Result | 106 |
| 12 | A General Approach | 107 |
| 12.1 | Spectral Classes | 107 |
| 12.2 | Civilizations in the Galaxy | 108 |
| 12.3 | Technological Civilizations | 110 |
| 12.4 | Other Civilizations | 111 |
| 12.5 | Basic Model and General Approach | 112 |
| 12.6 | Drake-Equation and General Approach | 113 |
| 12.7 | Corrections for the Earth | 114 |
| Part 3 - Evolution Options | ||
| 13 | Lines of Evolution | 115 |
| 13.1 | Lines of Development on the Earth | 115 |
| 13.2 | Convergent Development | 117 |
| 13.3 | Differentiation for Shape Possibilities | supplement |
| 13.4 | Humanoids in sunlike Systems | 118 |
| 13.5 | Corrected General Basic Model | 119 |
| 13.6 | General Approach | 120 |
| 13.7 | Working Hypothesis | 121 |
| 13.8 | Probabilities | 122 |
| 14 | Approximately earth-great planets | 123 |
| 14.1 | Influence of Gravity | 123 |
| 14.2 | Life and Civilization | 125 |
| 14.3 | Non sunlike Systems | 128 |
| 14.4 | Result | 129 |
| 15 | Distributions | 130 |
| 15.1 | Distribution of Raw Materials | 130 |
| 15.2 | Maximum Distribution of Civilizations | 132 |
| 15.3 | Distribution of Civilizations | 133 |
| 15.4 | Result | 135 |
| 15.5 | Building Set | 136 |
| 15.6 | Total Number of technological Civilizations | supplement |
| 15.7 | Total Number of humanoid Civilizations | supplement |
| 15.8 | Total Number of old Civilizations | supplement |
| Table | 137 | |
| Part 4 - Additional Considerations | ||
| 16 | The SETI-Project | 139 |
| 16.1 | The History of SETI | 139 |
| 16.2 | SETI@home | supplemen |
| 16.3 | Signals | 143 |
| 16.4 | Operating Time of SETI | 144 |
| 16.5 | No Answer | 144 |
| 16.6 | Quantum Technology | 145 |
| 16.7 | Distribution of Starsystems | 146 |
| 16.8 | The best Case | 147 |
| 16.9 | Distances and Periods | 148 |
| 16.10 | Consequences | 149 |
| 17 | A look into the future | supplemen |
| 17.1 | The Kardaschow-Scale | supplemen |
| 17.2 | Future Levels of a Civilization | supplemen |
| 17.3 | Daughter Civilizations | supplemen |
| 17.4 | Expansion of a civilization | supplemen |
| 17.5 | Expansion of civilizations | supplemen |
| 17.6 | Expansion of humanity | supplemen |
| 18 | The Fermi-Paradox | 150 |
| 18.1 | The Considerations of Fermi | 150 |
| 18.2 | The Situation today | 150 |
| 18.3 | Possible answers | supplemen |
| 18.4 | Worst Case | supplemen |
| 18.5 | Conclusion | supplemen |
| Bibliography | 152 | |
| Images Directory | 161 | |
| List of Names | 165 | |
| Persons | 165 | |
| Telescopes, Radio Telescopes | 166 | |
| Instutions | 166 | |
| Satellites, Space Station | 166 | |
| Astronomy | 167 | |
| Epochs | 169 | |
| Races | 169 | |
| Human Development | 170 | |
| Locations | 171 | |
| Keyword Index | 172 | |
| A new version of the book is under
construction. It will be published until April 2020 The new version will have 256 sites and it will be cheaper. |
| 176 Sites 84 coloured Illustrations 9 Tables Production und Publishing: Books on Demand GmbH, Norderstedt ISBN 9-783-7528-5524-1 Price: 22 Euro |
|
