Probabilities in the Galaxy
A Distribution Model for habitable Planets
Copyright © Klaus Piontzik Claude Bärtels

Probabilities in the Galaxy   The procedure used in the chapters of the book is called an axiomatic procedure in mathematics. Hypotheses are drawn from the analysis of empirical data of the Kepler satellite, which are called approaches and axioms. The statements derived from this are formulated as sentences to which certain probabilities are assigned. All axioms and sentences lead to an overall representation of the situation, which can then be used as a working hypothesis. This is a working hypothesis regarding the distribution of habitable, earth-like planets, as well as life, intelligence and civilizations in our galaxy.

It is rather improbable that we are alone in the universe.
It is more probable that we are not alone.


The book is based on the mathematical part of the "Alien Hypothesis". The work "Probabilities in the Galaxy" forms a closed, uniform working hypothesis that describes the distribution of habitable planets, life, intelligence and civilization in our galaxy. Furthermore, the Drake equation and the Drake-Seager equation have been integrated into the model.

 

   German Version  
  German Version  

 

In order to make the model of the distribution of life and intelligence in the galaxy accessible to a wider public, we have decided to put the mathematical part of the model largely on the Internet. As much of the model is published as necessary to implement the model. However, the references in the text can only be looked up in the book.


Probabilities in the Galaxy
A Distribution Model for habitable Planets
VERZEICHNIS

    Seite
  Introduction 8
     
   
1 Planets in the Galaxy 9
1.1 Detection of Planets 9
1.2 Data of the Kepler Satellite 10
1.3 Evaluation of Kepler Data 11
1.4 Sunlike Starsystems 11
1.5 G-Stars with Planets 12
1.6 G-Stars with habitable Planets 12
1.7 Probabilities for habitable Planets 14
1.8 Summary 14
 
 
2 Evaluation of catalogue data 15
2.1 Newer Catalog Data for Exoplanets 15
2.2 Subearth 17
2.3 Superearth 18
2.4 Approximately earth-great Planets 20
2.5 Approximately earth-like Planets 21
2.6 Summary 23
2.7 Conventions and Notation 24



3 "Earth 2.0" 25
3.1 How many "Earth 2" are possible? 25
3.2 Case Distinctions 25
3.3 Consequences 27
3.4 „How many stars are there?“ 28
3.5 Statistics 30



4 Animated Planets in our Galaxy 31
4.1 Planetary Assumptions for Life 31
4.1.4 Differentiation for the Probability of Life supplement
4.2 "Earth 2" with Life 36



5 Intelligent Species in our Galaxy 38
5.1 Global Catastrophies 38
5.2 Planetary Dangers of Development 40
5.2.2 Differentiation for the Probability of Intelligence supplement
5.3 Intelligent Species on an "Earth 2" 44



6 Civilizations in the Galaxy 46
6.1 Developmental Levels of a Civilization 46
6.2 Distribution of Civilization Levels 56
6.3 Special Basic Model 60
6.4 Technological Civilisations 61
6.5 Comparable technological Civilizations 62
6.6 Space traveling Civilizations 64
6.7 Probabilities 65



7 Survival of a Civilization 67
7.1 Development Barriers of a Civilization 67
7.1.2 Differentiation for Development Barriers supplement
7.2 Age of a Civilization 68
7.3 Old Civilizations in the Galaxy 68
7.3.4 Total Number of old Civilizations supplement
7.4 Temporal Distribution of Civilizations 70
7.5 Visitors 72
7.6 Future Levels of a Civilization supplement
7.7 Daughter Civilizations supplement



8 General Basic Model 73
8.1 Starsystems 73
8.2 Habitable Planets 73
8.3 "Earth 2" 75
8.4 Technological Civilizations 77
8.5 Other Civilizations 79
8.6 Comparison 80
8.7 Galactical habitable Zone 80
8.8 Probability Factors 82

   
9 The Drake-Equation 83
9.1 The classic Drake-Equation 83
9.2 Critics on the Drake-Equation 85
9.3 Carl Sagan 86
9.4 The modified Drake-Equation 87
9.5 Drake-Equation and General Basic Model 88
9.6 Corrected Values for the Earth 90
9.7 Corrections for Life and Intelligence 92
9.8 Corrections for the Basic Model 92
9.9 Other Civilizations 94

   
10 The Drake-Seager-Equation 95
10.1 The Equation from Sara-Seager 95
10.2 The extended Drake-Seager-Equation 96
10.3 The transformed Drake-Seager-Equation 98



11 Equivalence of Considerations 100
11.1 Equivalence 100
11.2 Corrected Values for the Earth 101
11.3 Corrections for Life and Intelligence 102
11.4 Corrections for the Basic Model 103
11.5 Other Civilizations 105
11.6 Result 106
     
12 A General Approach 107
12.1 Spectral Classes 107
12.2 Civilizations in the Galaxy 108
12.2.3 Total Number of technological Civilizations supplement
12.3 Technological Civilizations 110
12.4 Other Civilizations 111
12.5 Basic Model and General Approach 112
12.6 Drake-Equation and General Approach 113
12.7 Corrections for the Earth 114



13 Lines of Evolution 115
13.1 Lines of Development on the Earth 115
13.2 Convergent Development 117
13.2.2 Differentiation for Shape Possibilities supplement
13.3 Humanoids in sunlike Systems 118
13.4 Corrected General Basic Model 119
13.5 General Approach 120
13.5.5 Total Number of humanoid Civilizations supplement
13.6 Working Hypothesis 121
13.7 Probabilities 122



14 Approximately earth-great planets 123
14.1 Influence of Gravity 123
14.2 Life and Civilization 125
14.3 Non sunlike Systems 128
14.4 Result 129



15 Distributions 130
15.1 Distribution of Raw Materials 130
15.2 Maximum Distribution of Civilizations 132
15.3 Distribution of Civilizations 133
15.4 Result 135
15.5 Building Set 136



  Table 137
     

 

     
  APPENDIX  
     
16 The SETI-Project 139
16.1 The History of SETI 139
16.2 Signals 143
16.3 Operating Time of SETI 144
16.4 No Answer 144
16.5 Quantum Technology 145
16.6 Distribution of Starsystems 146
16.7 The best Case 147
16.8 Distances and Periods 148
16.9 Consequences 149
     
17 The Fermi-Paradox 150
17.1 The Considerations of Fermi 150
17.2 The Situation today 150
     
     
  Bibliography 152
     
  Images Directory 161
     
  List of Names 165
  Persons 165
  Telescopes, Radio Telescopes 166
  Instutions 166
  Satellites, Space Station 166
  Astronomy 167
  Epochs 169
  Races 169
  Human Development 170
  Locations 171
     
  Keyword Index 172
     

 

The english Book is under Construction 176 Sites
84 coloured Illustrations
9 Tables

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